Tag Archives: Mattie Larson

WHO WILL GET THE LAST SPOTS? A Look at the US and China

So a few of the Olympic teams have been announced. And I know everyone in the gymnastics community is debating over the “who will be number six” for the US. I am also checking everywhere constantly looking for information on the Chinese squad. So one spot for the US Team and in my opinion, two spots left on the Chinese team, I thought I would again take a look at who I think will be in these spots…

BTW- gymnast.com has a great rundown and a “virtual meet” which is definitely worth looking at.

First the US team:

In addition to Shawn Johnson, Nastia Liukin, Alicia Sacramone, Chellsie Memmel, and Samantha Peszek, here is each athlete in the running:

Jana Bieger

Positives- Outside of her routines, Jana has everything you want out of an athlete on the Olympic Team; she is consistent and handles the pressure well. She also is known on the international scene and is a triple silver medalist.

Negatives- She has a lower start value than others do that are competing for this very coveted spot. And she also is questionable in the B-score area in the opinion of many. (Which is the main reason some of that scoring drama irked me, we don’t really know where she stands internationally)

My Overall Opinion- I don’t know if I am being sentimental over my recent encounter with her, but I think she will get the spot if Shayla Worley is still too injured. I think Jana can be counted on to do her very best, which is really important because I believe the US can’t count major mistakes to beat China. (Unless the Chinese count like three falls but that is another story). Furthermore, if Jana were to eek out just two more tenths on her A-score (making it a 6.8) I think she has the spot without a doubt.

Shayla Worley

Postives- Shayla has World Championship experience and we know she can score well internationally. She can also bring in an A-score as high as 7.0. (At least I want to say I heard that).

Negatives- Others have said it and so will I; Shayla may be the Hollie Vise of 2008. Taking a chance with an injured athlete is NOT what the US wants to be doing that this point. Better to have a 15.6ish score from Jana than to count a fall.

My Overall Opinion- If Shayla’s health is in much better condition and she HITS at the Selection Camp, I think she will be taken over Jana. Every tenth counts, and Shayla has the potential to bring in bigger numbers than Jana.

Ivana Hong

Positives- Ivana has very pretty form and extension.

Negatives- Unfortunately, the negatives really outweigh the positives here. Ivana hasn’t been incredibly consistent (when compared to Jana, and has a lower A-score. More importantly though, after her bar routine being ripped to pieces in Stuttgart last year, we don’t want to take those chances again in Beijing with her new routine.

My Overall Opinion- I think Ivana may be an alternate, but I do not see her as part of this team.

Bridget Sloan

Postives- Bridget has a very decent A-score, and when she hits she scores quite well.

Negatives- She doesn’t have a lot of international experience in my opinion. She was the alternate and didn’t compete in Stuttgart. She also had a poorer showing at Trials, scoring lower both nights than she did at Nationals.

My Overall Opinion- She only has a tenth more in A-score than Jana, and her performance I think is a bigger risk than Jana’s will be. However, I think that she is absolutely going to be at least a traveling alternate.

Keep in mind that I believe that this 6th spot is solely based on bars. Whichever athlete gets this spot will only be going to count a good bars score in the Team Final. I really think it all depends on performances between Jana and Shayla at the Camp.

Why I believe Spot #5 is taken by Samantha Peszek:

With super strong floor showings from Chellsie, Samantha, and even Nastia on Floor at Trials, I think this spot is for the 3rd best vaulter. Peszek has that sealed. She is consistent and I really believe the best overall. Although I have heard that Corrie Lothrop is working on an Amanar, I don’t think The Powers That Be want to take that chance. Shawn is one of the most consistent athletes in the world and look how long she has been working to get that vault right. And Lothrop is an unknown and has little experience internationally. Although Ivana and Sloan have DTY’s Peszek is the most consistent. One more note, although I love Mattie Larson, I think she may be a good alternate for her vault and especially floor status. But I just don’t see her getting the spot over Peszek.

And now onto China…

It is assumed that the locks for the Chinese Team are Cheng Fei, He Kexin, Jiang Yuyuan, and Yang Yilin, which leaves two spots open. Let’s look at their gaps:

Vault- Cheng, Jiang, Yang/He.

Bars- He, Yang, Jiang

Beam- Cheng (I really think she will be used here), GAP, GAP.

Floor- Cheng, Jiang, Yang

Overall Analysis: Look familiar? China’s got almost the same problem on beam that the US has on bars. So with two spots open, I think it is quite likely that these spots will be determined by beam. Here are the possibilities:

Li Shanshan

Postives- Li has the highest start value in the world on beam (or at least as far as I know!) She was on the World Championship Team last year and is won the silver medal in Event Finals WITH A FALL. That is when you know you are good on an apparatus; although there have been AA wins with a fall, she is the only one to medal in EF with a fall.

Negatives- Li is not known for her consistency. A fall is is bad for the morale of the team and with no major errors China will win the Team Final.

My Overall Opinion- They have to take her. Even with a fall she can post one of the highest scores in the world. At this point, I would put her on my team.

Xiao Sha

Postives- She has international experience and has a 6.9 or 7.0 A-score.

Negatives- She is also known to have consistency issues.

My overall Opinion- She is the other athlete I would add. A fall would still put her above a 15 I think.

Sui Lu

Postives- Very high A-score on beam (6.9).

Negatives- Very little international experience and has not been consistent in international competitions.

My Overall Opinion- I wouldn’t take her. Good alternate because she has a great SV on Floor as well.

Deng Linlin

Positives- Deng has a high A-score on beam (6.9-7.1) and she recently did quite well at the Moscow World Cup in May, winning both beam and floor showing that she can be a reasonable backup on floor as well.

Negatives- Doesn’t have as much international experience as some, and isn’t known for her consistency either.

My Overall Opinion- I think this spot is between her and Xiao Sha. I also don’t know whom to pick between the two.

With Pang Panpan and Zhang Nan I am not even sure what their A-scores are on beam right now. Anyone? I really like Zhang because she is a sentimental favorite and she has more international experience for everyone in the running for these two spots. I also think beam is her best event. And overall, I think China just needs decent A-scores and a solid score to stay ahead of the US.

So what does everyone else think? Who would you put in these spots?

Advertisements

15 Comments

Filed under Uncategorized

Olympic Trials Conclude With Lots of Surprises

For starters, congratulations to Shawn Johnson and Nastia Liukin for earning their spots to Beijing. Like we all didn’t see that one coming hehe. But there were numerous surprises to me and here they go…

1. Jana Bieger. First off, Tim Daggett was talking about how the Olympic Team needs at least one female coach. Huh? I DID NOT know about this rule! How crazy is it that someone can get on the team based off the sex of their coach??? Hmmm, notice Jana’s bar scores were a bit higher here for Trials. But honestly, Jana was one of the bigger surprises to me. Before yesterday I had written her off completely. Now it appears as if she can get that final spot. I do really like her. I know she hasn’t got the best form but I still like her.

2. Chellsie Memmel rocks the house AGAIN. She actually beat Nastia’s AA score which was a huge accomplishment for her. Most importantly though, I think she has solidified her spot as the 3rd beam worker for the US, and at this point I would put her in the 3rd floor spot as well. I love how she sticks her landings these days! Bars dismount stuck two days in a row and beam stuck (and just a tiny hop the first day.) I mean, it’s not even that Chellsie finally made her comeback, but in some ways I think she is better than ever.

3. WHO IS GOING TO GET THE 6TH OLYMPIC SPOT? All of the front runners had huge errors. Both Bridget Sloan and Shayla Worley did a poor job today. Bridget’s full-in on floor scared the hell outta me. Is this what could put Jana on the team? Honestly, after Nationals I thought Sloan. Now I am not sure at all. Can hardly speculate.

4. I felt bad for Nastia. She looked sad a couple of times. But I still think she will be totally prepared by Beijing. I mean, she can FALL off bars in prelims and still qualify to finals. Also, I think she was scored completely fair minus floor. She got credit for that double turn again which she didn’t complete. Interesting note on over scoring: Last year before World’s Liukin and Johnson both took the double turns out of their floor routines (I can’t remember if this was BEFORE prelims though) because they weren’t getting the turn all the way round. So judges, please don’t give Shawn and Nastia credit for skills that are incomplete! I know both girls/coaches are smart enough to know if the skill is incomplete, but I still think it takes away from how important these skills are to overall scores when it comes to training. Maybe I am wrong.

5. Shawn was her usual awesome self. I love that kid.

6. Samantha Peszek is totally spot number 5 for Beijing. I really can’t see that not happening. Filling the vault gap is more important than the floor gap because I think we have that spot covered between Memmel or Liukin. And Sam shows the strongest DTY in the field.

7. Ouch Ivana Hong. You’re the alternate. You, Mattie Larson, and I think one of Bieger, Worley, or Sloan.

8. When NBC said that they might announce a third spot, I was so hoping for that! It would have been cool to see Alicia Sacramone get her moment. Her fluff piece totally made me cry yesterday.

So who is going to be in that last spot? Here is how I would shape up the team for Beijing:

Prelims-

VT- Johnson, Sacramone, Peszek, Liukin, Memmel

UB- Liukin, Memmel, ??????, Johnson, Pezsek

BB- Johnson, Liukin, Memmel, Sacramone, Peszek and or ?????

FX- Johnson, Sacramone, Memmel, Pezsek, Liukin

Team Finals:

VT- Johnson, Sacramone, Peszek

UB- Liukin, Memmel, ??????

BB- Johnson, Liukin, Memmel

FX- Johnson, Sacramone, Memmel

We shall see what happens. I will listen out for the rumors on how Shayla, Bridget, Ivana, and Jana are doing at camp. By the way, NBC already has videos up of tonight.

Next stop Beijing!

17 Comments

Filed under Uncategorized

Olympic Trials: The Happenings of Night One

Things happened last night, both good and bad. For all those with a shot at the Olympic Team here is what happened:

Shawn Johnson simply told us that even a flood will not keep her from doing her best. I think the most importnat routine of the night was floor. A huge improvement from Nationals, but I still think she is JUST barely getting that triple all the way round. One of the most surprising things to me was that she came in 3rd on bars! An improved A-score (6.4) made me incredibly excited as she needs this so bad for AA Finals in Beijing. With a 15.700 I am not sure if that is inflated as I have yet to see the actually routine. But one thing is for sure: I do not want Shawn doing bars in Team Finals because that would make her have to do three full AA competitions in Beijing and I don’t want her to get worn out.  EDIT:  I just saw Shawn’s vault and it was under rotated.  Pretty bad.  Cheng Fei was devalued during the 2006 Team Finals in Aarhus and this vault I actually think was way more questionable.  Stupid judges.

Nastia Liukin performed very well. I think the most important routine for her was floor. Because now she has two in a row hit, something I feel we haven’t seen from her since like, 2005. So that is very good for her cause. I have yet to see her bars routine and the near fall, but honestly as much as I don’t think the form will be fixed, I think Nastia will go home and do enough conditioning so that her tank does not read ’empty’ by the time she gets to the dismount in Beijing. She’ll get it. Beam looked solid.

Alicia Sacramone was beat on floor by NASTIA. Did Hell just freeze over? I think that is crazy and that Alicia really needs to step it up here. Supposedly she is upgrading, and I hope that is true. Her beam was also shaky with missed connections, however she completely stuck her vault, which was awesome.

Chellsie Memmel is so awesome. She is actually my favorite person to watch due to the excitment I feel over watching her succeed after I thought she was done. (In fact, watching Day 2 Nationals live, when she stuck her vault I like, YELLED, and my cat freaked out who and jumped off me leaving a big gas on my thigh. haha.) She again stuck her vault. She did well on floor and beam. But most importantly, she again scored over a 16 on bars and that makes her as sure a bet as anyone for that team.

Samantha Peszek did what she needed to do and if she repeats this performance, I think she will be on that team. Vault and floor were solid (although I think she took a step back on vault and must compare her vault to Brittany Ranzy who scored the exact same, 15.100).

Shayla Worley did not do so hot. Competing only bars and beam she received a 15.400 on UB with is not good enough to compete against China with. Beam was less than spectacular with a 14.800. Ouch. She is playing tug-of-war with Bridget Sloan over that last spot on the team and right now Bridget is winning. Bridget scored a 15.600 on bars which isn’t that much better but she who scores the 3rd highest in the country will be on that team in my opinion.

Ivana Hong has really great beam and floor sets tonight. Not too shabby on vault either. I think she will be an alternate to the team. But really nothing more.

Look at Mattie Larson in 7th place! She performed well on floor and tied for Ivana with vault. I just don’t think it is her time, but we shall see. Who knows what could happen.

That is all for now.

30 Comments

Filed under Uncategorized

Nationals: Shawn Wins, Chellsie Triumphant

Wooooow. What a day. I am going to stay away from scoring, which I think was all over the place today. Full results of the competition can be viewed here.

So Shawn Johnson wins her second senior US title. I am so happy for her.  She is amazing.  I LOVE the new floor music.  Stellar choice.

But again, the bigger story lies with Chellsie Memmel.   Chellsie ended up in 3rd which is SUCH a HUGE accomplishment for her!  She finally got her 7.0 on bars which she got a 16.300 on.  Beam had a couple of connection issues, but AGAIN sticks the dismount and earned a 15.450.  Floor was much better, this time earning a 15.600 with an A-score of 6.2.  Just in case anyone had any doubts, Chellsie decided to go for the Yurchenko 1.5 and STUCK IT.  Way to go Chellsie, I now know of NO WAY you won’t be a lock for the team.  She not only nailed the most important part of her contribution to the team: bars, but also showed that she is a contender for the beam and floor spots on the team.

So as of right now this is how I see the Olympic Team:

Shawn Johnson

Nastia Liukin

Alicia Sacraome

Chellsie Memmel

Bridget Sloan

Samantha Peszek

Bridget got 3rd on bars scoring a 15.750 and a 15.950.  With Shayla Worley out right now, I think Bridget has her spot.  These two I strongly believe are competing for the same spot and this outlook may be different come Trials, but right now Sloan is the one proving she should be the 3rd member of the Bars Club.

Samantha has a stellar beam set, did very well on bars, and then fell last pass on floor earning a 14.750.  As of right now, I don’t think her spot is jeopardized because I don’t see Mattie Larson making it over her.  Again, this opinion may change come trials.  I am not sure how much the ‘experience factor’ will count in the selection, but Larson did beat Pezsek in floor.  Larson scored a total of 31.050 compared to Peszek’s 29.950, a difference of 1.100.  On vault, Larson was 5 tenths less than Peszek, a 29.450 as compared to a 29.950.  I think Peszek cannot afford any more mistakes on floor.  But if Chellsie emerges as the 3rd best floor worker come trials, I think it may come down to Peszek and Larson battling over a vaulting spot, in which case I think Peszek would win.

I hate to say it, but I think Ivana Hong and Jana Bieger can count themselves out.  They are going to be alternates I think, along with the spot that is decided between Sloan and Worley.

Again, Trials will be another evaluation, two weeks from today we will have yet another analysis.

Congratulations  to  all the US girls for a spectacular Nationals.

13 Comments

Filed under Uncategorized

Nationals: Day One is Astounding

I don’t even know where to start. I enjoyed Day One on a chat room of WWGYM’s while constantly updating the Live Scores from USAG. WOW. I was blown away on so many levels, and damn I wish I would of been watching them live. It’s been a long few days of work, work, work on my house (I’m about to move out of my beloved Gainesville) and I had a couple of cocktails so I am just buzzing with what tonights scores have told me:

BTW full scores here

  • Chellsie Memmel won the evening to me. She right now sits in 3rd place. Her 6.8 bar set rocked a 16.000, beam of a 6.9 got a 16.150, and floor of 6.1 got a 15.100. She started with vault and at first I was scared as she ended up doing only a Yurchenko full. But wow. Chellsie did more than just perform to the best of the ‘bars club’ tonight; she beat out both Shawn Johnson and Alicia Sacramone‘s beam scores!!! Chellsie keeps doing this, there’s no way they can’t put her on the team. There’s just no way. Wow am I excited for her.
  • Mattie Larson was also one of the biggest surprises of the night. She beat Samantha Peszek‘s vault + floor total with a 14.900 and a 15.450 on floor, the 3rd highest FX score of the night! She has so far proved that she could be the dark horse. Don;t count her out yet! I haven’t really paid much attention to her, but I am amazed!
  • Shawn Johnson leads the show. Biggest surprise came from her 16.050 on floor! WHHHHHHAT??? With a 6.6 A-score, that is right now I think the highest in the world. I have heard rumors of those who have a planned 6.6, but I have not seen one in compeition. Wow Shawn. She seemed to have a hit meet. I am so excited to see her floor on Saturday, the new music is stellar sounding.
  • Nastia Liukin is 1.15 behind Shawn and broke 17 on the uneven bars! She performed from what I understand an awesome 1.5 Yurchenko and had trouble on floor, going 2 feet OOB and ending up with a 14.200.
  • Bridget Sloan was actually one of the other biggest surprises. With a 6.7 she got a 15.750 on bars for the 3rd highest score of the night. She did well on beam. She is at least looking at the alternate spot for Beijing, bare minimum.
  • On that note Ivana Hong had her usual lower scores. It does not look good for her.
  • Alicia Sacraome did well. No upgrades on floor nor beam, but still got some great numbers.
  • Shayla Worley is petitioning into Trials
  • Ashley Priess has dropped out of the race completely.

The way I see it now, I feel that Johnson, Liukin, Sacramone, AND MEMMEL are going. I still feel like Peszek is going, and that I believe would just leave a bars spot open. It is so between Sloan and Worley. If both of those gymnasts are healthy and performing strong come Trials, I feel like Worley would be chosen over Sloan because of her experience. What does everyone else think? Obviously after Saturday the results can produce different scenarios, but we will have to see!

Cheers to Chellsie.

12 Comments

Filed under Uncategorized

Thoughts and Answers to Some of the Comments on this page

There’s been some questions and thoughts on the comments of this blog (which I love, love, love!)  and since I have nothing particular to share I thought I would elaborate and what not.

  • First off, why Jana Bieger has a limited chance on making the Olympic Team.  The wide consensus among gymnastics fans and experts is that Shawn Johnson, Nastia Liukin, and Alicia Sacramone are locks for the Olympic Team.  Since the main priority is the Team Final where 3 up 3 count, the selection will cater to those 12 routines needed.  Among the first half of the squad we have:

Vault- Sacramone, Jonhson, GAP

Bars- Liukin, GAP, GAP

Beam- Johnson, Liukin, Sacramone

Floor- Jonhson, Sacramone, GAP

For the 3 remaining spots on the team, we need to fill 2 gaps on bars, and one gap apiece on vault and floor.  So our weakest showing is coming on uneven bars, which unfortunately is not good since that is China’s strongest event and they will gain at least a point on us based off their difficulty in comparison to the US.

The best solution is to put on power event gymnast, a floor and vault worker, for one spot, and fill the two remaining gaps with two bar workers.  Samantha Peszek is the best choice for spot #4 in my opinion, because she is the 3rd best on vault and now holds the highest difficulty (along with Johnson) on floor.  As another person pointed out, Peszek has had some consistency issues, but I would say Nationals/Trials will pretty much let us know.

Bieger simply does not fill any of these spots.  She is a great vaulter, but not difficult enough.  Same with floor, if she had her 2006 form back I would say she has a better shot.  Her bars difficulty is not enough either.  I do think that she is a good choice as an alternate.  I would put Chellsie Memmel in the same boat if it weren’t for the fact that she just showed a 6.9 and 16.0 scoring routine on bars.

With regards to Chelsea Davis, Darling Hill, and Mattie Larson, I would say the same thing.  Larson has a 6.0 on floor, Hill a 6.1 (I am basing these off the most recent Friendly Meet) and we have 6.2’s and higher from more experienced athletes.  Hill stil has only a yurchenko 1.5 which we need doubles at bare minimum.  For bars, we really need nothing less than a 6.7 and realistically 7.0+ is what we REALLY need.  None of these athletes can match this.  (Or can they?  Does anyone know?)  But there is also the experience factor, experienced  athletes that prove themselves have a bigger shot, though that does not have anywhere near as much pull in the decisions as the difficulty/consistency factor in my opnion.  Regardless of anything though, gymnasts may add more difficulty by Nationals.  High difficulty performed consistently throughout June is going to be what matters.

  • The selection procedures allow for more than just the top 12 from Nationals to advance to trials.  Sacarmone will have no problem proceeding to trials.  Remember in 2004, Chellsie Memmel and Hollie Vise only did two events in Trials, and neither competed at Nationals and petitioned their way in.
  • In regards to the Nastia winning the AA.  So many thoughts.  But here is where I am coming from.  I like gymnastics that are “wow” skills.  I like huge tricks performed cleanly.  Whereas Nastia’s bar routine is loaded, even her beam routine I think isn’t so much.  She has no “F” or “G” skill anywhere in her routines.  She mostly loads with “D”‘s.  “D”s are the very middle skill.  Not one of the easiest, not one of the hardest.  But good respectable skills.  (and of course, the triple off beam will add in an “F”)  This is why I like He Kexin, she does amazing releases that nearly no one does.  But she does do some pirouettes.  (Li Ya had an amazing combination of both)  Mo Huilan and Kim Gwang-Suk type routines were what really would thrill me, stuff no one tends to do.  This is why I respect Johnson so much.  Her bar routine isn’t the best, but even there she is capable of something NO ONE else can perform consistently in their repertoire.

With regards to the twisting only elements on floor, it is not that I don’t like twisting combinations, but again, I think to be really good at an event you should show variety.  Nastia does not hold enough variety for me to think she is great at that event.

In regards to the old code, you could get away with scoring too high much easier.  Let’s first establish that regardless of the code, gymnasts with the reputation so very often get the benefit of the doubt.  This applies to a lot of gymnasts.  In the old code you could also get away with only twisting elements on floor.  I realize Nastia had won numerous competitions, but in 2005 Nationals remember her floor on one day was overscored because she was given difficulty not in her routine.  The only competitions I can think of her winning under the new code, were SCAM 08′ and Nationals 06′, which caused a lot of debate because many thought Natasha Kelley should have won.

I am not saying anyone is right or wrong, I just wanted to explain where I was coming from.  I like Nastia, I just don’t think she is the best at the All-Around.  Top Ten, but not top three.  And yes, I do agree, Nastia is better at floor than Sacramone and Cheng Fei appear to be on bars.

  • Lastly, Lilia Podkopayeva was the last triple crown winner: 1995 Worlds, 1996 European and Olympic Champion.  I did think at one time that Shawn would be that if she won in Beijing, (counting 07′ Worlds and Pan Am’s) but when I think about it the Pan Am’s can’t hold a candle to the Europeans 🙂    

I wrote this in a few sections and ran away from the computer a LOT.  So if there are mad grammatical errors or totally incomplete thoughts I apologize.  I don’t have time really to blog, but I really wanted to write a new post.

Thank you everyone for all your comments and opinions.  It’s so nice to hear it all and know it’s all out there.  I think we should make a huge petition to send to NBC that we want more gymnastics coverage, and if you broadcast Beijing even close to the way you did Sydney…a lot of angry gym fans are going to come storm NBC Studios!  🙂

19 Comments

Filed under Uncategorized

Comparing China and USA after Nationals and Training Camp Conclude…

First off, still awaiting some hardcore results from the Friendly International Meet going on at the Ranch.  Supposedly (and I am not sure if this is just Prelims or Finals)  the AA results were:

1) Ivana Hong
2) Ashley Priess
3) Chellsie Memmel
4) Mattie Larson

Notes:  Priess supposedly has a 7.0+ bars score, which as I have said before, she performs that with no errors through Nationals and Trials she will have a ticket to Beijing.  Memmel scored well on floor from what I understand, and no idea what Hong is up to.  Alicia Sacramone supposedly did real well and scored more than a 16 on beam, which I think just further secures her spot.    Shayla Worley is having back issues and left the training camp early, so perhaps her spot is in question.  And again, whoever gets second in bars for the two main deciding competitions, is going to Beijing, USA cannot afford otherwise.

Meanwhile in China, scores are soaring to new levels.  16 is the new 15 over there.  A little inflated of course, but none the less amazing.  Here are the results of China’s Event Finals, courtesy of International Gymnast:

Women’s Vault
1. Cheng Fei 15.812 (Double-twisting Yurchenko, 15.50/Cheng 16.125)
2. Deng Shaojie 15.45
3. Deng Linlin 14.90

Uneven Bars
1. He Kexin 17.325 (7.7 A)
2. Yang Yilin 16.725 (7.7 A)
3. Pang Panpan 16.475
4. Jiang Yuyuan 16.40
5. He Ning 16.075

Balance Beam
1. Sui Lu 16.575 (7.0 A)
2. Guo Wei 16.500 (6.9 A)
3. Zhang Nan 16.300 (6.8 A)
4. Cheng Fei 16.175 (6.8 A)
5. Li Shanshan 16.125
6. Cui Jie 16.050
7. Hu Yuhong 15.500
8. Xiao Sha 15.30

Women’s Floor Exercise
1t. Sui Lu 16.200 (6.4 A)
1t. Cheng Fei 16.200 (6.5 A)
3. Yang Yilin 15.675 (6.2 A)
4. Cui Jie 15.500
5. He Ning 15.625
6t. Guo Wei 15.500
6t. Jiang Yuyuan 15.500
8. Xiao Sha 15.450

The breakdown:  The way I see it, China has one gap (if you can even call it that) on beam.

Cheng Fei, Jiang Yuyuan, Yang Yilin, and He Kexin are all going to Beijing.  And after Nationals I would include Sui Lu into the lineup for sure.  Winning beam is one thing, but to tie Cheng Fei on one of her signature events is a huge deal.   Vault, bars, and floor are covered.  (and if you notice above there is a typo in the floor scores, I am not sure what is actually right.)  For beam Sui Lu and Cheng Fei are good, but who should be in the 3rd spot?  And who for the last spot of the team?  Well, Guo Wei whoever you are, maybe you will be in.  What I would love is to bring Zhang Nan.  That would be excellent, she did get 3rd!  

Back to the US…

So again, Shawn Johnson, Nastia Liukin, and Alicia Sacramone make up 50% of the team.  And with how well Samantha Peszek did during camp, providing she continues this path throughout June meets, I think she has made her case.  She has the same A-score as Shawn on floor, which I am guessing is a 6.5.  I think Memmel, Worley, Priess, Hong, and Bridget Sloan, who supposedly has a 6.7 on bars now, are fighting for those last two spots.  Considering every other event for Team Finals is covered, 2nd and 3rd to Nastia on bars is who gets the last two golden tickets.

Now lets look at some difficulty score comparisons… (BTW check out some of the blogs I have links to, and I need to put some others in, because there are some wonderfully written and analyzing things out there)

China:

Vault- 6.5,6.5, 5.8.  = 18.8

Bars- 7.7,7.7, and 7.0 we will say, even though it may be a couple tenths higher.  = 22.4

Beam- 7.0,6.9,6.9 (I am just speculating) = 20.8

Floor- 6.5,6.4,6.4 = 19.3

Total 81.3

USA

vault- 6.5,6.3,5.8 = 18.6

bars- 7.7, 7.0,6.7 (thats being generous) = 21.4

beam- 7.0, 6.7,6.6 (though it may be a couple tenths higher) = 20.3

floor- 6.5,6.5,6.2 =19.2

Total 79.5

That’s a 1.8 difference.  Now, for some of you that may go crazy at that, I am just speculating and trying to be realistic.  I will recalculate again when Nationals comes up OR if I get some hardcore A-score facts.

But as of right now, if China hits in Team Finals they WILL have the gold.  The difference in uneven bars alone is going to be around one point.  But one thing is for sure, this will be good.  I can barely wait.  It has been a looooong four years.

9 Comments

Filed under Uncategorized