Updated thoughts on Event Finals


So now that we are only two weeks from the start of the Olympic Games, I thought I would update what and who of the Event Finals.  After all, we know who is competing minus two spots on the Russian Team which will be announced shortly.  Remember guys, this is just my opinion!

So here is my post from my previous predictions and I will also look at how my viewpoint now varies.

Vault-

The Finalists-  Cheng Fei, Hong Su Jong, and Alicia Sacramone will be finalists.  Period.  There is no way I see them unable to qualify.  I also still think that Cheng and Hong can qualify even if they count a fall (assuming they both do the 6.5 A-score vaults).

Rounding out the other five spots I think will be Oksana Chusovitina and Jade Barbosa, both are very good vaulters, the same which I thought before.  Who else is doing well on the vaulting scene?  I am thinking at least one Russian will be in there, and I think Anna Pavlova is the front runner on that side.  They may even nab another spot, a couple girls featured on gymnast.com have some exceptional DTY’s.

Differences from previous post- Elena Zamolodchikova isn’t going, so she won’t qualify.  Pretty much is the same.  Also, I think an Italian may possibly sneak in there, I have been hearing Amanar rumors about (I think) Carlotta Giovanni.

Guesstimate on the Medalists- Cheng, Hong, Sacramone. (No specific order)

Uneven Bars-

The Finalists- Without a doubt I think Nastia Liukin, He Kexin, and Yang Yilin will qualify.  I also think that Beth Tweddle, Ksenia Semenova, and (probably) Steliana Nistor will find themselves in there.

That leaves two spots left.  I think Marie Sophie Hindermann and Chellsie Memmel will do it.  The British have been getting a lot better on bars so maybe they will change this.  Who knows.

Differences from previous post- Seems I replaced Memmel for the thought of Daria Zygoba.

Guesstimate on the medalists– He, Yilin, Liukin.  (No specific order)

Beam-

Finalists- Without a doubt I think Shawn Johnson and Li Shanshan will make finals.  Rounding out the other six spots I think there will be one more American, two Russians, two Romanians, and probably another Chinese.  Although I would normally put Nastia in there automatically, I am not so sure anymore.  Memmel and Sacramone are capable of scoring higher due to higher A-scores, but we will have to see because I don’t think they can match the execution scores of Liukin.  I also can’t speak about how scoring will ride in Beijing because it always seems to vary.  The last World Championships seem to favor difficulty, but I have a feeling execution may be weighed a bit more.  Two Russians in the spot are between Pavolva, Semenova, and also Lyudmilla Yezhova  Grebenkova (if she is selected onto the team).    Steliana Nistor and Sandra Izbasa have room to sneak in there.   For the last Chinese member I would say Deng Linlin or maybe Cheng Fei.  I think there is room for Australia’s Lauren Mitchell to come in there and bump someone out of this lineup.

Differences from previous postYulia Lozechko and Sui Lu are not on the teams, so aren’t qualifying.  And orginally I didn’t factor in Pavlova.  I also mentioned Stefani Bismpkou whom I now don’t think will qualify but would LOVE to see qualify.  Mitchell wasn’t in my orginal post either.

Guesstimate on the medalists- Johnson, Li, 2nd American (No specific order)

Floor-

Finalists- Shawn Johnson, Cheng Fei, and Sandra Izbasa  WILL be in this floor final.   I don’t have Sacramone in there because at this point I think it is questionable that she will even make it!  It is quite possible (if all the upgrades do make that 6.5 or 6.4) for Memmel to bump her off the line here.  Now, if Sacramone upgrades (I hear her score will be at least a 6.4) then with clean routines I think Sacramone will be the one with the higher execution scores.  Regardless, one more American besides Johnson will advance to finals.  So there is half the lineup.  Others who have a shot at this final in my opinion are Daiane Dos Santos, Anna Pavlova, Dasha Joura, Beth Tweddle, Jiang Yuyuan, or even Yang Yilin.  I can’t think of anyone else, I hear Cassy Vericel is still limping around.  I don’t think Vanessa Ferrari will make it due to her foot making her A-score lower.  Out of those mentioned above, I would like to see the last four spots got to Dos Santos, Pavlova, and Joura.  I didn’t pick a last person.  I am not sure.  And I keep thinking I am missing someone key.

Differences from previous post–  Not much.  Sui Lu was mentioned as a possibility and that’s not happening.

Guesstimate on the Medalists- Cheng, Johnson, Izbasa.  (No specific order.  Note:  How happy I would be if Dos Santos won.)

Without a doubt it is going to be a blast.  I can’t decide which EF I am most excited about.  Here is what I am generally looking forward to most in each event:

Vault-  Cheng Fei.  Hands down.  I want Olympic Glory for her.  Sacramone doing her absolute best, and of course the anticipation of her Amanar.  Chusovitina competing her last moments in her final Olympics.

Uneven Bars-  The race between the 7.7 A-score Club.  Without a doubt.  And because I am really thinking Memmel will be in the lineup, another lovely Memmel moment.

Beam-  Shawn Johnson competing.  Beam is also my favorite event usually.  It’s the event with the most adrenaline for me to watch as it is the make or break event.  I really want Shawn to win gold here.

Floor-  Cheng and Johnson again make this for me.  But the list of competitors that I have the potential to see makes it quite thrilling.  Remember, I am one of those who loves the sentimental favorites.

I can’t believe it all starts in just two weeks.  By the way, I have no idea what the text did to itself in this post.

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13 Comments

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13 responses to “Updated thoughts on Event Finals

  1. Isis

    I’ll stay away from predictions, but here are my wishes:

    (1) VT gold for Cheng Fei. After dominating VT this entire quad, she deserves it.

    (2) UB gold for He Kexin. She’s my favorite gymnast right now. I love, love, LOVE her UB work.

    (3) BB gold for someone other than Li Shanshan and Nastia Liukin. I normally root for China, but LSS really lacks fluidity, and I don’t really like watching her. Nastia, on the other hand, has all the fluidity you could ask for, but she lacks difficulty. Since Xiao Sha isn’t going (sob, sob), I guess I wouldn’t mind seeing Shawn win here.

    (4) FX gold for someone other than Shawn. I don’t like her choreo. Would be nice if a Chinese won; but I’m only saying that because I always root for China. 😛

  2. TCO

    DDS has mad skilz but is all over the place on execution. No floor final.

  3. amy

    Nastia on beam for sure…:)

  4. Giulyx14

    Carlotta Giovannini doesn’t have an Amanar but a Khorkina 2 (A 5.9).
    Vanessa will do a 6.4 floor…

  5. Katrina

    Chusovitina competing her last moments in her final Olympics.

    um, nope, she said that this won’t be her last olympics… I think she mentioned 2021

  6. Starsky

    I do believe that execution will be highly valued in these games. So, given this is the Chinese signature element to their routines and theyre performing at home … the Chinese will dominate these Olympics. Unless (and this is HUGE ‘unless’) they crack under pressure……and this is very, very likely giving their track record.

  7. Catherine

    I think memmel and alicia will be floor finals, especially because I see them getting credited with higher A scores

  8. Li

    I hope Memmel really surprises at this Olympics. She can take medals in the AA, beam and floor out right and if everyone tries to out A score each other on bars, Memmel hits her jam and she has a shot there too.

    I would like to see China win at their Olympics. I love when teams win at home. The 96 AA is a sad moment. What could have been. Coaches should have been resting their gymnasts for the AA after teh team win. Not partying

  9. TCO

    I hope Shawn makes it to EF on UB. Liukin just does a bunch of code whoring. And has all kinds of arches, missed handstands and incredible amounts of deduction on her dismount (0.3 cowboy, 0.5 deep squat, 0.3 step). Shawn is really clean.

  10. Aaliyah

    hi hope you win
    xxx

  11. I found your site on technorati and read a few of your other posts. Keep up the good work. I just added your RSS feed to my Google News Reader. Looking forward to reading more from you down the road!

  12. JAMES MARTINS

    MARAVILHOSA SUA ATUACAO E CARISMA BEST BEST IN THE WORLD
    CONGRATULATIONS FROM BRASIL FANCLUBE

  13. fernando

    hello from zacatecas mexico!!! muy interesantes sus comentario pero la mejor es Anna Pavlova y si no les gusta me vale un pito!! adios y ARRIBA LAS CHIVAS….. Nos vemos Aguasclientes.

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