Comparing China and USA after Nationals and Training Camp Conclude…


First off, still awaiting some hardcore results from the Friendly International Meet going on at the Ranch.  Supposedly (and I am not sure if this is just Prelims or Finals)  the AA results were:

1) Ivana Hong
2) Ashley Priess
3) Chellsie Memmel
4) Mattie Larson

Notes:  Priess supposedly has a 7.0+ bars score, which as I have said before, she performs that with no errors through Nationals and Trials she will have a ticket to Beijing.  Memmel scored well on floor from what I understand, and no idea what Hong is up to.  Alicia Sacramone supposedly did real well and scored more than a 16 on beam, which I think just further secures her spot.    Shayla Worley is having back issues and left the training camp early, so perhaps her spot is in question.  And again, whoever gets second in bars for the two main deciding competitions, is going to Beijing, USA cannot afford otherwise.

Meanwhile in China, scores are soaring to new levels.  16 is the new 15 over there.  A little inflated of course, but none the less amazing.  Here are the results of China’s Event Finals, courtesy of International Gymnast:

Women’s Vault
1. Cheng Fei 15.812 (Double-twisting Yurchenko, 15.50/Cheng 16.125)
2. Deng Shaojie 15.45
3. Deng Linlin 14.90

Uneven Bars
1. He Kexin 17.325 (7.7 A)
2. Yang Yilin 16.725 (7.7 A)
3. Pang Panpan 16.475
4. Jiang Yuyuan 16.40
5. He Ning 16.075

Balance Beam
1. Sui Lu 16.575 (7.0 A)
2. Guo Wei 16.500 (6.9 A)
3. Zhang Nan 16.300 (6.8 A)
4. Cheng Fei 16.175 (6.8 A)
5. Li Shanshan 16.125
6. Cui Jie 16.050
7. Hu Yuhong 15.500
8. Xiao Sha 15.30

Women’s Floor Exercise
1t. Sui Lu 16.200 (6.4 A)
1t. Cheng Fei 16.200 (6.5 A)
3. Yang Yilin 15.675 (6.2 A)
4. Cui Jie 15.500
5. He Ning 15.625
6t. Guo Wei 15.500
6t. Jiang Yuyuan 15.500
8. Xiao Sha 15.450

The breakdown:  The way I see it, China has one gap (if you can even call it that) on beam.

Cheng Fei, Jiang Yuyuan, Yang Yilin, and He Kexin are all going to Beijing.  And after Nationals I would include Sui Lu into the lineup for sure.  Winning beam is one thing, but to tie Cheng Fei on one of her signature events is a huge deal.   Vault, bars, and floor are covered.  (and if you notice above there is a typo in the floor scores, I am not sure what is actually right.)  For beam Sui Lu and Cheng Fei are good, but who should be in the 3rd spot?  And who for the last spot of the team?  Well, Guo Wei whoever you are, maybe you will be in.  What I would love is to bring Zhang Nan.  That would be excellent, she did get 3rd!  

Back to the US…

So again, Shawn Johnson, Nastia Liukin, and Alicia Sacramone make up 50% of the team.  And with how well Samantha Peszek did during camp, providing she continues this path throughout June meets, I think she has made her case.  She has the same A-score as Shawn on floor, which I am guessing is a 6.5.  I think Memmel, Worley, Priess, Hong, and Bridget Sloan, who supposedly has a 6.7 on bars now, are fighting for those last two spots.  Considering every other event for Team Finals is covered, 2nd and 3rd to Nastia on bars is who gets the last two golden tickets.

Now lets look at some difficulty score comparisons… (BTW check out some of the blogs I have links to, and I need to put some others in, because there are some wonderfully written and analyzing things out there)

China:

Vault- 6.5,6.5, 5.8.  = 18.8

Bars- 7.7,7.7, and 7.0 we will say, even though it may be a couple tenths higher.  = 22.4

Beam- 7.0,6.9,6.9 (I am just speculating) = 20.8

Floor- 6.5,6.4,6.4 = 19.3

Total 81.3

USA

vault- 6.5,6.3,5.8 = 18.6

bars- 7.7, 7.0,6.7 (thats being generous) = 21.4

beam- 7.0, 6.7,6.6 (though it may be a couple tenths higher) = 20.3

floor- 6.5,6.5,6.2 =19.2

Total 79.5

That’s a 1.8 difference.  Now, for some of you that may go crazy at that, I am just speculating and trying to be realistic.  I will recalculate again when Nationals comes up OR if I get some hardcore A-score facts.

But as of right now, if China hits in Team Finals they WILL have the gold.  The difference in uneven bars alone is going to be around one point.  But one thing is for sure, this will be good.  I can barely wait.  It has been a looooong four years.

Advertisements

9 Comments

Filed under Uncategorized

9 responses to “Comparing China and USA after Nationals and Training Camp Conclude…

  1. Watch the Chinese Floor routines. The scores from their last meet are too high. This weekend the World Cup meet will be much more realistic, though it is hosted in China.

    The eventual gap in team score with the girls who ACTUALLY compete (the consistent ones, not necessarily the highest start scores) I predict will be about 1.0 higher for China. And it won’t be enough. USA will win though China will likely win preliminaries.

  2. david

    In 2007 World Champions, both the US and China made 2 major mistakes in the team final (Shawn and Nastia on BB and Chen Fei on VT and Li Shanshan on Floor).

    In the coming Olympics, whoever makes fewer mistakes will be the winner. I do believe the US has an edge, not by much, on China in terms of execution though.

    And I still believe they will put Li Shanshan in considering the fact that if she hits, no one in this world can beat her on BB. Even with a fall, she can still manage a decent score 15.3+ easily.

  3. audgator

    I agree with both of you 100%

    -Li Shanshan, regardless of the fact that she is all over the place sometimes, can still post a highly competitive score WITH a fall. That is worth taking to me.

    -With the team, I agree, consistency is the name of the game. I am really excited to see how they handle the pressure.

    -Yes. Those scores were MAD HIGH!

  4. ilovepavlova

    really consistency is going to be the game that’s why many of the chinese are competing in diff world cups to boost their confidence and the only chinese that are consistent right now is he kexin, yilin and sui lu and with the experience sui will get in moscow(though not really enough)

    chinese are really working with their A scores so that even if they will make some mistakes they will slightly get a higher score. especially with the rumors upgrade being done by the chinese especially on the UB. rumors are, yilin has 8.0 with a release move added and kexin 7.9 with some connecting skilld before her tkatchev and also the amanar that is also rumored. cheng fei with a pike arabian on the floor.

    obviously the chinese doesnt want to show all their upgrades now and expect with more upgrades from them

    my chinese team would going to be

    vault
    6.5, 6.5 6.5 (amanar for kexin)

    UB
    7.9 kexin, 8.0 yilin, 7.2 jiang

    BB
    7.3 lss(though she’s a bit inconsistent, her a score is really needed and if she hit, she’s untouchable.) but i would prefer the consistent one like guo who ever she is.
    7.1 sui
    7.0 cheng

    FX
    6.6 ( with the pike arabian)
    6.4
    6.4

    usa also has the upgrade rumors like memmel with 7.0,priess with 7.0 and peszek with amanar.
    i really think peszek should focus on her vault especially with that rumor amanar because she is capable of it.

    if both teams will hit, china is going to win. but if china will made some errors, there is a chance usa may grab the gold but it would be in china ofcourse slightly favoritism will give extra point to them.

    chinese has 2 strong gymnast who can medal in UB, BB and FX.
    china will get more medals for sure.
    and for the AA as much as i like jiang or liukin to win, shawn has the advantage.

  5. david

    The upgrades on VT and UB from the Chinese are scary. I am a little suspicious though, especially on VT.

    I do believe Chen Fei will add 0.1 or 0.2 to her A score on FX. If not, her chance of winning FX will not be so great.

  6. blah

    Priess does not have a 7.0 A score on bars. That rumor is not true.

    Marta wants no Memmel in China. Be prepared for low scores

  7. audgator

    Interesting.

  8. ilovepavlova

    ya i know memmel has low scores from the meet. all the americans should capitalized their strong events because they dont need any AA now. like for example hong, memmel and priess must upgrades their UB because that is what usa needs right now.

  9. Tasha

    yang yilin, nast, and jiang actually have higher AA SV than shawn…..
    also if samantha does that amanar she will surpass shawn in difficulty: floor 6.5, vault 6.5, bars 6.3, beam 6.9(!!!!)

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out /  Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out /  Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out /  Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out /  Change )

Connecting to %s