It can’t be. It just can’t be. Chellsie Memmel can’t be hurt.
Chellsie’s foot is in an aircast, she may only do bars. I didn’t believe this when I heard it but there are a couple of articles about it. Like here. And here.
NNNNNNNNNNNNOOOOOOOOOOOOOO!
Please, please let this turn out to be not serious and everything is okay.
Sigh, in other news for those of you that don’t know, Daria Yelizarova has been taken off the Russian team and Lyudmila Yezhova Grebenkova has been put in. There is also rumors that Hong Su Jong is out as well.
14 Comments
August 3, 2008 at 12:22 pm
Some analysis:
(if you post it, don’t let the moderators know where it came from…I’m banned.)
1. Scores form all 10 athletes who were at selection camp and finished it healthy (team of 6, 3 alternates and Davis):
NAME VTavg VTavg-rank UBavg UBavg-rank BBavg BBavg-rank FXavg Fxavg-rank
Bieger 14.58 9 15.36 4 15.21 7 14.93 9
Davis 14.75 8 15.13 8 14.94 9 15.00 7
Hong 14.82 7 15.16 7 15.30 6 15.15 6
Johnson 15.96 1 15.57 3 16.21 1 16.07 1
Liukin 14.88 6 16.71 1 16.12 2 15.30 4
Lothrop 14.93 5 14.74 9 14.86 10 14.95 8
Memmel 14.46 10 16.15 2 15.90 3 15.46 3
Peszek 15.08 4 15.23 6 15.66 5 15.28 5
Sacramone 15.85 2 0.00 10 15.87 4 15.53 2
Sloan 15.20 3 15.32 5 15.06 8 14.72 10
B. Expected team line-up if Memmel is healthy (based on averages above, plus having Liukin and Memmel do AA). Top 3 are EF. Bottom 2 are prelims.
VT UB BB FX
Johnson Liukin Johnson Johnson
Sacramone Memmel Liukin Sacramone
Sloan Johnson Memmel Memmel
Liukin Sloan Sacramone Liukin
Memmel Peszek Peszek Peszek
C. Impact to team if Memmel goes down (by event, assumes no alternate):
1. VT: No negative mpact in TF as she does not compete them. In prelims, team is actually improved by having Peszek able to VT for score. Also enables comparison of Peszek and Sloan for TF spot.
2. UB: In TF her 16.15 would be replaced by Sloan’s 15.32 for an average loss of .82. In prelims, team would be forced to compete 4 girls, but team is highly likely to advance regardless.
3. BB: In TF, her 15.90 would be replaced by an almost equivalent 15.87 Sacramone average score, for a loss of 0.03. In prelims, Sloan would now be the 5th girl competing with a not very competetive average score of 15.06. However, the other girls are quite strong on BB and in any case, USA has no worries about prelims. Even were Sloan to dazzle in prelims, it’s unlikely that she could displace one of the TF girls.
4. FX: In TF, her 15.46 would be replaced by Liukin’s 15.30 average score for a loss of .16. Sloan would also now get the nod as the 5th girl for FX prelims.
5. Total damage: 1.01 points: ~80% of which is from UB, ~15% from FX, ~5% from BB.
D. Alternate scenarios:
1. Only Bieger adds any score to the TF if replacing an injured Memmel. She adds 0.04 to UB over Sloan. Would also allow both to train together on podium and also to see who does better in prelims as they are so close to help a better decision for TF (similar situation to Sloan and Peszek on VT). Bieger would also likely do BB and FX in prelims as she’s a couple tenths better than Sloan on those events. (Sloan did have a single high FX at CAMP however as well as very low scores at TRIALS, so if that is not an outlier, there’s some possibbility Sloan might get the nod for FX.) Bieger would sit VT prelims as she has a very low 14.58 average.
2. Hong adds no score to TF if replacing Memmel, but would compete in prelims on FX and BB (she’s actually better than Bieger on both these events so she’s also better than Sloan of course as well.) She would also do prelims on UB, with Alicia of course sitting. She would sit out VT prelims as her average is below all the other girls, including Nastia.
3. Lothrop also adds no score to TF if replacing Memmel. With respect to prelims, she actually has a slightly higher average VT than Liukin, but would still sit as Nastia needs the AA qual. On UB, she has a rather low 14.74 average but would still compete as the 5th girl with Alicia sitting. On BB, her 14.86 is well below Sloan’s 15.06, so she would sit that prelim. Her FX however is a couple tenths higher, so she would likely be the 5th girl on FX prelims with Sloan sitting.
4. Analysis of alternate options: None of the alternates offer much help to the team. Presumably Jana Bieger would get the nod as she is mathematically a hair better than Sloan on UB, so should add about a half a tenth to total score (actually her 0.04 reduces the 1.01 Memmel loss to a 0.97 loss). The other girls would add nothing and prelims are not a danger for the USA. Also having Sloan and Beiger together for podium training and prelim competition could be useful (a direct analogy to being able to watch Peszek and Sloan on VT). Hong would be the next best choice as she offers more wide coverage of prelims than Lothrop.
However, the BEST OPTION if in any way possible, is to have Memmel compete UB only (if physically capable and likely to get a competitive score). This is the main area where losing her hurts the team as well as the only area where an alternate could help. (FX has moderate damage but is well covered within the team by Liukin. On BB there’s almost no loss since Sacramone is almost identical to Memmel in score.)
So a decision to scrap Memmel and bring in Beiger should be delayed as long as possible (having Beiger work to be ready of course), while also allowing Memmel maximum rest for her hurt leg and no work on any apparatus other than UB.
August 3, 2008 at 7:49 pm
Memmel can’t be hurt. This will truely ruin my Olympics.
There is no God if she can only compete bars. None at all:(
August 3, 2008 at 11:35 pm
If she only competes bars, but bags a 16+, it does a LOT for the team. We lose almost nothing having Sac go in for her on beam, and just a couple tenths on FX by putting Liukin in.
Having her do UB only is just fine!
August 4, 2008 at 10:16 am
She reminds me so much of one of my all-time favorite gymnasts, Viktoria Karpenko, who always seemed to be injured at the wrong time. It’s so unfortunate.
August 4, 2008 at 12:34 pm
I am so sorry for Chelssie…Hope she will be ok. I know that she is a fighter and she will help her team! Go Chellsie
August 4, 2008 at 4:43 pm
When I saw the news a few hours ago, I wanted to scream. After all Chellsie has been through, after all the hard work and inspiring performances, this just can’t be happening to her. And I must say that it puts a damper on my own excitement for the Games – I wanted nothing more than to see Chellsie make AA finals and blow everyone away. Of course, it is uncertain whether the powers that be would even give Chellsie a chance to make AA finals, but I would much rather see Chellsie and Shawn in the AA than Nastia and Shawn. I hate to say it, but the Nastia/Shawn Show has gotten rather old and worn out for me. We need some new faces in the AA mix. Sure, there are those that believe Chellsie lacks style and good form, but it seems she’s tightened and improved her body lines this year. Personally, I never tire of watching her perform. She is a beautiful, dynamic gymnast, and NOBODY beats her strength and toughness (insert 2006 Worlds team final here.) In that vein, I’d say I am heartbroken, but clinging to the hope that she can overcome this injury. If not, then at the very least I want to see her rock her bars set, make UB finals, and blow everyone away on that event (I know, that is not likely, but it would still make my day.)
August 4, 2008 at 4:55 pm
If Chelse can get up and do one of her 16+ sets on UB in TF, that is most of what we need from her. All else is secondary.
Audgator: I emailed you. Am I in trouble for something?
August 4, 2008 at 6:23 pm
LS-
I couldn’t have said it better. Exactly what I wanted.
TCO-
no, you are not in trouble! I responded to you.
August 4, 2008 at 8:19 pm
I don’t care about the US team winning. I want Chellsie to do well.
I am rooting for China in the team competition.
August 7, 2008 at 1:41 pm
This truly sucks. Memmel could do AA but Marta won’t let her.
Memmel’s ankle was hurting during podium but she was walking fine. Injuries happen. She deserved this shot.
Life truly sucks:(
August 10, 2008 at 3:43 am
CHELLSIE MEMMEL IS A WASTE OF SPACE AND AN EMBARASSMENT TO USA GYMNASTICS… and Wisconsin, for that matter
Did we really think that after all of these injury-plagued years she would actually escape the Olympics unscathed??
Pshaw… I scoff at your naiveté…
If we lose the gold, it will all be on her shoulders
We would have been loads better off with Jana or Ivana
August 10, 2008 at 6:27 pm
you really think that? I think Chellsie is an amazing person, and I completely disagee.
August 11, 2008 at 2:02 pm
sharky you are by all means entitled to your opinion, but speaking as you did makes you look like the embarrassment (and at least know how to spell the word). she may very well be the reason we still have a shot at winning the gold medal, even for just the contribution of one event. even with watered down difficulty she placed much higher than everyone besides Shawn and Nastia. She has made many contributions to USA gymnastics since 2003 and is a wonderful role model for any aspiring gymnast.
that is my personal opinion. as for yours all i’m trying to say is you could have worded it in a more constructive way.
August 11, 2008 at 10:19 pm
Sharky, I did the numbers and Memmel is worthwhile having even as an UB specialist. Now, Pesz versus Jana, that’s a better question. Especially hurt. But it seems like Marta doesn’t want to upset the team…even though we ought to bring in a reserve.