Wooooow. What a day. I am going to stay away from scoring, which I think was all over the place today. Full results of the competition can be viewed here.
So Shawn Johnson wins her second senior US title. I am so happy for her. She is amazing. I LOVE the new floor music. Stellar choice.
But again, the bigger story lies with Chellsie Memmel. Chellsie ended up in 3rd which is SUCH a HUGE accomplishment for her! She finally got her 7.0 on bars which she got a 16.300 on. Beam had a couple of connection issues, but AGAIN sticks the dismount and earned a 15.450. Floor was much better, this time earning a 15.600 with an A-score of 6.2. Just in case anyone had any doubts, Chellsie decided to go for the Yurchenko 1.5 and STUCK IT. Way to go Chellsie, I now know of NO WAY you won’t be a lock for the team. She not only nailed the most important part of her contribution to the team: bars, but also showed that she is a contender for the beam and floor spots on the team.
So as of right now this is how I see the Olympic Team:
Shawn Johnson
Nastia Liukin
Alicia Sacraome
Chellsie Memmel
Bridget Sloan
Samantha Peszek
Bridget got 3rd on bars scoring a 15.750 and a 15.950. With Shayla Worley out right now, I think Bridget has her spot. These two I strongly believe are competing for the same spot and this outlook may be different come Trials, but right now Sloan is the one proving she should be the 3rd member of the Bars Club.
Samantha has a stellar beam set, did very well on bars, and then fell last pass on floor earning a 14.750. As of right now, I don’t think her spot is jeopardized because I don’t see Mattie Larson making it over her. Again, this opinion may change come trials. I am not sure how much the ‘experience factor’ will count in the selection, but Larson did beat Pezsek in floor. Larson scored a total of 31.050 compared to Peszek’s 29.950, a difference of 1.100. On vault, Larson was 5 tenths less than Peszek, a 29.450 as compared to a 29.950. I think Peszek cannot afford any more mistakes on floor. But if Chellsie emerges as the 3rd best floor worker come trials, I think it may come down to Peszek and Larson battling over a vaulting spot, in which case I think Peszek would win.
I hate to say it, but I think Ivana Hong and Jana Bieger can count themselves out. They are going to be alternates I think, along with the spot that is decided between Sloan and Worley.
Again, Trials will be another evaluation, two weeks from today we will have yet another analysis.
Congratulations to all the US girls for a spectacular Nationals.
13 Comments
June 7, 2008 at 8:14 pm
woooo nastias AA total day 2 was higher than shawn’s aa score from night 1 and night 2. i think nastias score, a 64.2 is the current world record! i jiang yuyuan got a 63. something so nastia is the best
and you had another post about nastia not being an AAder because of her weakness on vt and floor. i completely disagree. shes so good at floor and for her vault she scored about the same as a lot of ppl that were doing DTYs
and lastly i dont kno how u consider chellise an AAder but not nastia. chellsie rocks but i mean nastia is stronger on vault and floor , and a lot better on bars and beam. even nastias weakest event, floor, shes only 4 tenths behind johnson (thats with johnson getting credit for a triple that shes never completed) while at the same time johnson is 1.5 points behind nastia on bars. i consider nastia a lot better on floor than shawn is on bars
also you had another post saying that alicia cud possibly take nastias spot in beam finals. at first I laughed at that because not only did nastia beat alicia, she also is national beam champion with a 1.5 tenths lead over shawn. and ironically, its actually more probable for nastia to take alicias spot in floor finals than it is for alicia to even dream of going to beam finals
June 8, 2008 at 8:52 pm
I couldn’t agree more with your post…I am so, so excited for Chellsie! I think it’s definitely b/t Bridget and Shayla, and I really hope Shayla at least can come out fighting and healthy and give it her best shot b/t Trials and camp. The better the competition and pressure on those two, the better the team will be in Beijing. And poor Jana and Ivana. BTW, does ANYBODY know why Ivana gets so hammered by the judges on bars? What gives?
Personally my biggest disappointment w/night 2 was Shawn Johnson’s leotard…she seems like such a genuine, humble kid. So why the big “SJ” on the sleeve of her already-funky leo? Hmmm.
June 8, 2008 at 9:12 pm
Can we say Shawn Johnson has a lock on the AA gold in the coming Olympics with those performances shown in the nationals?
Absolutely. She is unbeatable at this moment.
And she has very good chance to win golds on BB and FX as well. I was amazed by the consistence shown in her BB. However, she has to clean up her whip + triple in her floor routine to win. Landing like that would cost her more than any gain from the difficulty of that element. At the end of the day, whoever has a cleaner routine, especially on landing, among Cheng Fei, Sandra, and Shawn, wins the gold on FX.
June 8, 2008 at 9:39 pm
David, I agree that, unless Shawn screws up, she’ll get the AA title. And like you, I really like her on the beam; wouldn’t mind at all to see her get the BB gold. FX however… I don’t much like Shawn on the floor; I like her music and choreo. I hope Cheng Fei gets the floor gold with her dragon routine; provided she gets her full difficulty back or upgrades, that is.
June 8, 2008 at 9:40 pm
Ooops! I meant: I DON’T like Shawn’s music and choreo.
June 10, 2008 at 11:35 am
based on the following assessment on team final (3 on 3):
Vault Bars Beam Floor
******************************************
Johnson Johnson Johnson
Liukin Liukin
Sac Sac
Memmel Memmel Memmel/Liukin
Sloan Sloan/Worley
*unless Peszak does an Amanar, she will not be needed because you need at least 4 girls who could do bars (Liukin, Memmel, Sloan, and Worley) and Sloan will have the DTY by trials. So the team will probably be:
Shawn Johnson V B FL
Liukin B UB
Memmel B UB FL
Sac V FL
Sloan V (and UB)
Worley UB
Alternates: Peszak, Bieger, and Hong.
June 10, 2008 at 8:52 pm
Johnson wins by a landslide if these are the routines competed by her and Nastia in any international competition. The way they over score Nastia is nausiating
June 10, 2008 at 10:46 pm
Cheng Fei, Jiang Yuyuan, Yang Yilin, and Sui Lu will all be competing in the coming French Invitation this week.
Can’t wait to see if Cheng Fei has upgraded her FX exercise.
June 11, 2008 at 1:01 pm
David,
That’s so exciting! I can’t wait to see Cheng Fei’s floor either; I like her dragon routine quite a lot (it’s certainly not among the best floor routines of all time, but I think it’s one of the best of the current crop), and I’d love to see her win (or at least medal) on floor at the Olympics, but only if she gets her full difficulty back or upgrades.
I’m also really glad that Sui Lu is going. I hope she does (much, much) better than she did in Moscow.
I’m a little disappointed to hear that Xiao Sha isn’t going though. I hope they haven’t completely given up on her Olympics-wise.
June 12, 2008 at 12:09 am
Isis, I think Sui Lu, Li Shanshan, Xiao Sha, Pang Panpan, and Deng Linlin all have chance for the last two spots in the Olympic team right now. I kinda like them all, so it will be difficult for me to see any of them, especailly Xiao Sha and Pang Panpan, not to make it. It’s very likely that this Olympics probably would be the last one for Xiao and Pang.
June 12, 2008 at 9:24 am
David, I think that the five gymnasts that you listed are in contention in principle. However:
(1) I would LOVE to see PPP in Beijing, but I’m concerned that she may be too injured. We have yet to see her compete beam this year (she did compete it at the Chinese test event, but as far as I know, there are no videos of that one, and I have no idea how she did), and she’d need to do BB in Beijing. I have heard rumors of a 6.9 BB A-score for her, though, which boosts her chances; last year, she only had a 6.4 BB A-score.
(2) I also really like Xiao Sha, but I’m concerned that she may have blown her chances when she fell of the beam in the EF at the Tianjin World Cup. I do hope that she is still in contention, though.
(3) I like Sui Lu. I hope she does much better in France than she did in Moscow. She’s got a really neat BB routine, but annoyingly enough, she tends to miss multiple connections. IF she is picked for the team, and IF she qualifies for the BB EF, and IF she hits her routine (without missing any of her connections), then I’d love to see her medal on the beam at the Olympics.
(4) I don’t much like Li Shanshan. She lacks fluidity and looks awkward (though, for some reason, I liked her better in Barcelona than I usually do). But I think she should and will make the Chinese team because of her huge scoring potential.
(5) I actually don’t know that much about Deng Linlin…
Anyway, I think we’ll see Li Shanshan and someone else get the last two spots. If PPP is healthy enough, I hope she gets that last spot.
June 12, 2008 at 10:44 am
BTW, I just noticed that Gymnastics Results posted the scores from the Barcelona World Cup qualifications, as well as the event finals. Li Shanshan did pretty well on the beam on both days: 15.95 in the quals and 15.90 in EF (her A-score was 7.0 in the quals and 6.9 in the EF). Now, it is worth saying that Li Shanshan scored 15.90 with a fall at least year’s Worlds, which makes her Barcelona scores look less than stunning. But still, apart from Xiao Sha, I am not aware of a Chinese scoring higher than this in an international competition (please correct me if I’m wrong). I think Li Shanshan is going to the Olympics.
And dare I guess that the coaches (and possibly a sports psychologist) are working with her to make her more mentally stable in competition? If that’s what they’re doing, it seems to be working.
June 14, 2008 at 10:19 pm
peszek has competed the DTY at worlds already so they would prefer hers (and fraknly i would be a hell lot less nervous)
i think if shayla recovers from her injury, she will be favored. we competed ub at worlds so judges already know her and we know that they score her well so it might be a safer choice to use worley instead of sloan